Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
